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Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

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Zeitschriftentitel: Sustainability
Personen und Körperschaften: Zhao, Dandan, He, Hong, Wang, Wen, Wang, Lei, Du, Haibo, Liu, Kai, Zong, Shengwei
In: Sustainability, 10, 2018, 3, S. 863
Format: E-Article
Sprache: Englisch
veröffentlicht:
MDPI AG
Schlagwörter:
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Geography, Planning and Development
author_facet Zhao, Dandan
He, Hong
Wang, Wen
Wang, Lei
Du, Haibo
Liu, Kai
Zong, Shengwei
Zhao, Dandan
He, Hong
Wang, Wen
Wang, Lei
Du, Haibo
Liu, Kai
Zong, Shengwei
author Zhao, Dandan
He, Hong
Wang, Wen
Wang, Lei
Du, Haibo
Liu, Kai
Zong, Shengwei
spellingShingle Zhao, Dandan
He, Hong
Wang, Wen
Wang, Lei
Du, Haibo
Liu, Kai
Zong, Shengwei
Sustainability
Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Geography, Planning and Development
author_sort zhao, dandan
spelling Zhao, Dandan He, Hong Wang, Wen Wang, Lei Du, Haibo Liu, Kai Zong, Shengwei 2071-1050 MDPI AG Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment Geography, Planning and Development http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030863 <jats:p>Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.</jats:p> Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region Sustainability
doi_str_mv 10.3390/su10030863
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title Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_unstemmed Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_full Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_fullStr Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_full_unstemmed Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_short Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_sort predicting wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities in a mid- and high-latitude region
topic Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Geography, Planning and Development
url http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030863
publishDate 2018
physical 863
description <jats:p>Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.</jats:p>
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author Zhao, Dandan, He, Hong, Wang, Wen, Wang, Lei, Du, Haibo, Liu, Kai, Zong, Shengwei
author_facet Zhao, Dandan, He, Hong, Wang, Wen, Wang, Lei, Du, Haibo, Liu, Kai, Zong, Shengwei, Zhao, Dandan, He, Hong, Wang, Wen, Wang, Lei, Du, Haibo, Liu, Kai, Zong, Shengwei
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description <jats:p>Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.</jats:p>
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spelling Zhao, Dandan He, Hong Wang, Wen Wang, Lei Du, Haibo Liu, Kai Zong, Shengwei 2071-1050 MDPI AG Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment Geography, Planning and Development http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030863 <jats:p>Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.</jats:p> Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region Sustainability
spellingShingle Zhao, Dandan, He, Hong, Wang, Wen, Wang, Lei, Du, Haibo, Liu, Kai, Zong, Shengwei, Sustainability, Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Geography, Planning and Development
title Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_full Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_fullStr Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_full_unstemmed Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_short Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
title_sort predicting wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities in a mid- and high-latitude region
title_unstemmed Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region
topic Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Geography, Planning and Development
url http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030863