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Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study

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Zeitschriftentitel: BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health
Personen und Körperschaften: Seferidi, Paraskevi, Laverty, Anthony A, Collins, Brendan, Bandosz, Piotr, Capewell, Simon, O’Flaherty, Martin, Millett, Christopher, Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
In: BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health, 3, 2020, 1, S. 3-10
Format: E-Article
Sprache: Englisch
veröffentlicht:
BMJ
Schlagwörter:
Nutrition and Dietetics
Medicine (miscellaneous)
Health (social science)
author_facet Seferidi, Paraskevi
Laverty, Anthony A
Collins, Brendan
Bandosz, Piotr
Capewell, Simon
O’Flaherty, Martin
Millett, Christopher
Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
Seferidi, Paraskevi
Laverty, Anthony A
Collins, Brendan
Bandosz, Piotr
Capewell, Simon
O’Flaherty, Martin
Millett, Christopher
Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
author Seferidi, Paraskevi
Laverty, Anthony A
Collins, Brendan
Bandosz, Piotr
Capewell, Simon
O’Flaherty, Martin
Millett, Christopher
Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
spellingShingle Seferidi, Paraskevi
Laverty, Anthony A
Collins, Brendan
Bandosz, Piotr
Capewell, Simon
O’Flaherty, Martin
Millett, Christopher
Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health
Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
Nutrition and Dietetics
Medicine (miscellaneous)
Health (social science)
author_sort seferidi, paraskevi
spelling Seferidi, Paraskevi Laverty, Anthony A Collins, Brendan Bandosz, Piotr Capewell, Simon O’Flaherty, Martin Millett, Christopher Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan 2516-5542 BMJ Nutrition and Dietetics Medicine (miscellaneous) Health (social science) http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjnph-2019-000057 <jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Current proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&amp;V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&amp;V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&amp;V into changes in F&amp;V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&amp;V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&amp;V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&amp;V production.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>We found that increasing land use for F&amp;V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>Post-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&amp;V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.</jats:p></jats:sec> Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health
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title Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_unstemmed Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_full Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_fullStr Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_short Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_sort potential impacts of post-brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in england: a modelling study
topic Nutrition and Dietetics
Medicine (miscellaneous)
Health (social science)
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjnph-2019-000057
publishDate 2020
physical 3-10
description <jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Current proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&amp;V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&amp;V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&amp;V into changes in F&amp;V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&amp;V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&amp;V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&amp;V production.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>We found that increasing land use for F&amp;V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>Post-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&amp;V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.</jats:p></jats:sec>
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author Seferidi, Paraskevi, Laverty, Anthony A, Collins, Brendan, Bandosz, Piotr, Capewell, Simon, O’Flaherty, Martin, Millett, Christopher, Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
author_facet Seferidi, Paraskevi, Laverty, Anthony A, Collins, Brendan, Bandosz, Piotr, Capewell, Simon, O’Flaherty, Martin, Millett, Christopher, Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan, Seferidi, Paraskevi, Laverty, Anthony A, Collins, Brendan, Bandosz, Piotr, Capewell, Simon, O’Flaherty, Martin, Millett, Christopher, Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan
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description <jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Current proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&amp;V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&amp;V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&amp;V into changes in F&amp;V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&amp;V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&amp;V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&amp;V production.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>We found that increasing land use for F&amp;V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>Post-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&amp;V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.</jats:p></jats:sec>
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spelling Seferidi, Paraskevi Laverty, Anthony A Collins, Brendan Bandosz, Piotr Capewell, Simon O’Flaherty, Martin Millett, Christopher Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan 2516-5542 BMJ Nutrition and Dietetics Medicine (miscellaneous) Health (social science) http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjnph-2019-000057 <jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Current proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&amp;V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&amp;V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&amp;V into changes in F&amp;V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&amp;V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&amp;V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&amp;V production.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>We found that increasing land use for F&amp;V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>Post-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&amp;V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.</jats:p></jats:sec> Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health
spellingShingle Seferidi, Paraskevi, Laverty, Anthony A, Collins, Brendan, Bandosz, Piotr, Capewell, Simon, O’Flaherty, Martin, Millett, Christopher, Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan, BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health, Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study, Nutrition and Dietetics, Medicine (miscellaneous), Health (social science)
title Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_full Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_fullStr Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_short Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
title_sort potential impacts of post-brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in england: a modelling study
title_unstemmed Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study
topic Nutrition and Dietetics, Medicine (miscellaneous), Health (social science)
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjnph-2019-000057