author_facet Zollo, A.
Iannaccone, G.
Lancieri, M.
Cantore, L.
Convertito, V.
Emolo, A.
Festa, G.
Gallovič, F.
Vassallo, M.
Martino, C.
Satriano, C.
Gasparini, P.
Zollo, A.
Iannaccone, G.
Lancieri, M.
Cantore, L.
Convertito, V.
Emolo, A.
Festa, G.
Gallovič, F.
Vassallo, M.
Martino, C.
Satriano, C.
Gasparini, P.
author Zollo, A.
Iannaccone, G.
Lancieri, M.
Cantore, L.
Convertito, V.
Emolo, A.
Festa, G.
Gallovič, F.
Vassallo, M.
Martino, C.
Satriano, C.
Gasparini, P.
spellingShingle Zollo, A.
Iannaccone, G.
Lancieri, M.
Cantore, L.
Convertito, V.
Emolo, A.
Festa, G.
Gallovič, F.
Vassallo, M.
Martino, C.
Satriano, C.
Gasparini, P.
Geophysical Research Letters
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Geophysics
author_sort zollo, a.
spelling Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. 0094-8276 1944-8007 American Geophysical Union (AGU) General Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689 <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p> Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation Geophysical Research Letters
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title Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_unstemmed Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_full Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_fullStr Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_full_unstemmed Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_short Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_sort earthquake early warning system in southern italy: methodologies and performance evaluation
topic General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Geophysics
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689
publishDate 2009
physical
description <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p>
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author Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P.
author_facet Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P., Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P.
author_sort zollo, a.
container_issue 5
container_start_page 0
container_title Geophysical Research Letters
container_volume 36
description <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p>
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spelling Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. 0094-8276 1944-8007 American Geophysical Union (AGU) General Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689 <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p> Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation Geophysical Research Letters
spellingShingle Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P., Geophysical Research Letters, Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
title Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_full Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_fullStr Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_full_unstemmed Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_short Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
title_sort earthquake early warning system in southern italy: methodologies and performance evaluation
title_unstemmed Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
topic General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689