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Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
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Zeitschriftentitel: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Personen und Körperschaften: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
In: | Geophysical Research Letters, 36, 2009, 5 |
Format: | E-Article |
Sprache: | Englisch |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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author_facet |
Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. |
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author |
Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. |
spellingShingle |
Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. Geophysical Research Letters Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation General Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics |
author_sort |
zollo, a. |
spelling |
Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. 0094-8276 1944-8007 American Geophysical Union (AGU) General Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689 <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p> Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation Geophysical Research Letters |
doi_str_mv |
10.1029/2008gl036689 |
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2009 |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
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Geophysical Research Letters |
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title |
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_unstemmed |
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_full |
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_fullStr |
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_short |
Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_sort |
earthquake early warning system in southern italy: methodologies and performance evaluation |
topic |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689 |
publishDate |
2009 |
physical |
|
description |
<jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p> |
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author | Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P. |
author_facet | Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P., Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P. |
author_sort | zollo, a. |
container_issue | 5 |
container_start_page | 0 |
container_title | Geophysical Research Letters |
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description | <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p> |
doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2008gl036689 |
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source_id | 49 |
spelling | Zollo, A. Iannaccone, G. Lancieri, M. Cantore, L. Convertito, V. Emolo, A. Festa, G. Gallovič, F. Vassallo, M. Martino, C. Satriano, C. Gasparini, P. 0094-8276 1944-8007 American Geophysical Union (AGU) General Earth and Planetary Sciences Geophysics http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689 <jats:p>We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead‐Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S‐wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.</jats:p> Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation Geophysical Research Letters |
spellingShingle | Zollo, A., Iannaccone, G., Lancieri, M., Cantore, L., Convertito, V., Emolo, A., Festa, G., Gallovič, F., Vassallo, M., Martino, C., Satriano, C., Gasparini, P., Geophysical Research Letters, Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics |
title | Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_full | Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_fullStr | Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_full_unstemmed | Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_short | Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_sort | earthquake early warning system in southern italy: methodologies and performance evaluation |
title_unstemmed | Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation |
topic | General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics |
url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036689 |