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Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data
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| Zeitschriftentitel: | Meteorological Applications |
|---|---|
| Personen und Körperschaften: | |
| In: | Meteorological Applications, 25, 2018, 2, S. 217-227 |
| Format: | E-Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
Wiley
|
| Schlagwörter: |
| author_facet |
Cogan, J. Cogan, J. |
|---|---|
| author |
Cogan, J. |
| spellingShingle |
Cogan, J. Meteorological Applications Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data Atmospheric Science |
| author_sort |
cogan, j. |
| spelling |
Cogan, J. 1350-4827 1469-8080 Wiley Atmospheric Science http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1684 <jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>The evaluation of vertical profiles derived from model output normally consists of comparisons with meteorological observations at prescribed levels. Simulated ballistic trajectories with their major dependence on meteorological conditions is suggested as an additional means to evaluate the accuracy of a model over the vertical extent of the trajectory, and is demonstrated with a preliminary model evaluation. Normally, initialization and adjustment of lateral boundary conditions employs the most recent output available from a larger scale regional or global model. However, some applications such as for civilian or military responders in areas with minimal or no connectivity to data centres may require the use of older large‐scale model data. This paper demonstrates the alternative method in a preliminary investigation on the effect of using older large‐scale data on mesoscale model accuracy. Initial results for trajectories and comparisons with meteorological observations showed wide variation among individual cases and a general tendency towards poorer accuracy with age of the large‐scale data. As the age of the large‐scale model increased from 3 to 4 days, trajectory outcomes showed slight improvements, and wind and, to a lesser extent, temperature appeared to improve slightly at several heights. Model profile and coincident radiosonde‐based trajectories differed by about 89 m for the mesoscale model forecast using the most recent (0 day) large‐scale input to 276 m for the oldest (4 days). While a far more complete dataset is required for conclusive results, these outcomes help point the way to further research.</jats:p> Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data Meteorological Applications |
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| title |
Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_unstemmed |
Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_full |
Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_fullStr |
Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_short |
Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_sort |
model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| topic |
Atmospheric Science |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1684 |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| physical |
217-227 |
| description |
<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>The evaluation of vertical profiles derived from model output normally consists of comparisons with meteorological observations at prescribed levels. Simulated ballistic trajectories with their major dependence on meteorological conditions is suggested as an additional means to evaluate the accuracy of a model over the vertical extent of the trajectory, and is demonstrated with a preliminary model evaluation. Normally, initialization and adjustment of lateral boundary conditions employs the most recent output available from a larger scale regional or global model. However, some applications such as for civilian or military responders in areas with minimal or no connectivity to data centres may require the use of older large‐scale model data. This paper demonstrates the alternative method in a preliminary investigation on the effect of using older large‐scale data on mesoscale model accuracy. Initial results for trajectories and comparisons with meteorological observations showed wide variation among individual cases and a general tendency towards poorer accuracy with age of the large‐scale data. As the age of the large‐scale model increased from 3 to 4 days, trajectory outcomes showed slight improvements, and wind and, to a lesser extent, temperature appeared to improve slightly at several heights. Model profile and coincident radiosonde‐based trajectories differed by about 89 m for the mesoscale model forecast using the most recent (0 day) large‐scale input to 276 m for the oldest (4 days). While a far more complete dataset is required for conclusive results, these outcomes help point the way to further research.</jats:p> |
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| description | <jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>The evaluation of vertical profiles derived from model output normally consists of comparisons with meteorological observations at prescribed levels. Simulated ballistic trajectories with their major dependence on meteorological conditions is suggested as an additional means to evaluate the accuracy of a model over the vertical extent of the trajectory, and is demonstrated with a preliminary model evaluation. Normally, initialization and adjustment of lateral boundary conditions employs the most recent output available from a larger scale regional or global model. However, some applications such as for civilian or military responders in areas with minimal or no connectivity to data centres may require the use of older large‐scale model data. This paper demonstrates the alternative method in a preliminary investigation on the effect of using older large‐scale data on mesoscale model accuracy. Initial results for trajectories and comparisons with meteorological observations showed wide variation among individual cases and a general tendency towards poorer accuracy with age of the large‐scale data. As the age of the large‐scale model increased from 3 to 4 days, trajectory outcomes showed slight improvements, and wind and, to a lesser extent, temperature appeared to improve slightly at several heights. Model profile and coincident radiosonde‐based trajectories differed by about 89 m for the mesoscale model forecast using the most recent (0 day) large‐scale input to 276 m for the oldest (4 days). While a far more complete dataset is required for conclusive results, these outcomes help point the way to further research.</jats:p> |
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| spelling | Cogan, J. 1350-4827 1469-8080 Wiley Atmospheric Science http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1684 <jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>The evaluation of vertical profiles derived from model output normally consists of comparisons with meteorological observations at prescribed levels. Simulated ballistic trajectories with their major dependence on meteorological conditions is suggested as an additional means to evaluate the accuracy of a model over the vertical extent of the trajectory, and is demonstrated with a preliminary model evaluation. Normally, initialization and adjustment of lateral boundary conditions employs the most recent output available from a larger scale regional or global model. However, some applications such as for civilian or military responders in areas with minimal or no connectivity to data centres may require the use of older large‐scale model data. This paper demonstrates the alternative method in a preliminary investigation on the effect of using older large‐scale data on mesoscale model accuracy. Initial results for trajectories and comparisons with meteorological observations showed wide variation among individual cases and a general tendency towards poorer accuracy with age of the large‐scale data. As the age of the large‐scale model increased from 3 to 4 days, trajectory outcomes showed slight improvements, and wind and, to a lesser extent, temperature appeared to improve slightly at several heights. Model profile and coincident radiosonde‐based trajectories differed by about 89 m for the mesoscale model forecast using the most recent (0 day) large‐scale input to 276 m for the oldest (4 days). While a far more complete dataset is required for conclusive results, these outcomes help point the way to further research.</jats:p> Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data Meteorological Applications |
| spellingShingle | Cogan, J., Meteorological Applications, Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data, Atmospheric Science |
| title | Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_full | Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_fullStr | Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_short | Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_sort | model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| title_unstemmed | Model evaluation using ballistic trajectories and preliminary mesoscale model accuracies with age of global model initialization data |
| topic | Atmospheric Science |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1684 |