author_facet Mueter, Franz J.
Bond, Nicholas A.
Ianelli, James N.
Hollowed, Anne B.
Mueter, Franz J.
Bond, Nicholas A.
Ianelli, James N.
Hollowed, Anne B.
author Mueter, Franz J.
Bond, Nicholas A.
Ianelli, James N.
Hollowed, Anne B.
spellingShingle Mueter, Franz J.
Bond, Nicholas A.
Ianelli, James N.
Hollowed, Anne B.
ICES Journal of Marine Science
Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
Ecology
Aquatic Science
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Oceanography
author_sort mueter, franz j.
spelling Mueter, Franz J. Bond, Nicholas A. Ianelli, James N. Hollowed, Anne B. 1095-9289 1054-3139 Oxford University Press (OUP) Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate.</jats:p> Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change ICES Journal of Marine Science
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title Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_unstemmed Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_full Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_fullStr Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_full_unstemmed Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_short Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_sort expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern bering sea under future climate change
topic Ecology
Aquatic Science
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Oceanography
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022
publishDate 2011
physical 1284-1296
description <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate.</jats:p>
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author Mueter, Franz J., Bond, Nicholas A., Ianelli, James N., Hollowed, Anne B.
author_facet Mueter, Franz J., Bond, Nicholas A., Ianelli, James N., Hollowed, Anne B., Mueter, Franz J., Bond, Nicholas A., Ianelli, James N., Hollowed, Anne B.
author_sort mueter, franz j.
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description <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate.</jats:p>
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spelling Mueter, Franz J. Bond, Nicholas A. Ianelli, James N. Hollowed, Anne B. 1095-9289 1054-3139 Oxford University Press (OUP) Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate.</jats:p> Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change ICES Journal of Marine Science
spellingShingle Mueter, Franz J., Bond, Nicholas A., Ianelli, James N., Hollowed, Anne B., ICES Journal of Marine Science, Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change, Ecology, Aquatic Science, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Oceanography
title Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_full Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_fullStr Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_full_unstemmed Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_short Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
title_sort expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern bering sea under future climate change
title_unstemmed Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
topic Ecology, Aquatic Science, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Oceanography
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022